Study: Last Minute E-Shoppers Might Save Holiday Forecasts

"The growth trajectory increased each week during the first four weeks of this year's holiday shopping period, which is in marked contrast to last year, when year-over-year growth rates declined each week," said Charles Buchwalter, vice president of media research. "That translates into a holiday season where the majority of online shopping activity occurs closer to Christmas versus earlier in the shopping season."

While the index, which measures 500 Web sites, is down a tenth of a percent from the previous week, "from a statistical point of view, that's about the same," Jupiter analyst Jared Blank told the E-Commerce Times.

Blank said many shoppers, mindful of the weak economy, waited until late in the season to try to get better deals on purchases.

"The late-season momentum of this year's online holiday traffic suggests that this year's sales expectations are likely to be exceeded," he said.

Jupiter is predicting sales of US$11.9 billion for this holiday season.

No Doubt

Consumers this year have more faith in e-tailers' ability to deliver merchandise quickly, Blank believes.

"Last year, consumers received most of their gifts on time and so they are more confident," he said.

Free shipping provided by some sites is also boosting sales, Blank said.

The report showed "steady traffic" to brick-and-mortar retailer sites, like Walmart.com (NYSE: WMT) and Toysrus.com. According to the analyst, that indicates that "consumers are researching online with the intent of buying in the actual stores, highlighting the need for retailers to integrate their online and offline operations."

Christmas Couch?

Among last week's big category gainers were furniture sites, which rose 59 percent from the previous week. Food sites also did well, marking a 18 percent gain, and flower/gift/greeting card sites were up 16 percent.

Among individual sites, the biggest traffic gainer last week was Netflix.com, which saw 117 percent growth in average daily visitors from the previous week.

Hallmark.com saw traffic rise 71 percent, and Egreetings.com enjoyed a 63 percent increase in average daily visitors.

Not All Rosy

Other reports have painted a mixed picture of holiday sales in 2001, at least at the start.

Earlier this week, Forrester Research (Nasdaq: FORR) said it might have to reconsider its forecast for $11 billion in holiday sales after a disappointing November.

A report last week from Jupiter itself said that while traffic to e-commerce sites rose in the week ended December 7th, many consumers remained concerned about buying online.