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Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) is having a rough week. On Sunday, Goldman Sachs
downgraded its stock to "neutral" from "buy," citing a poor selling environment. In fact, Apple's desktop sales 
dropped 38 percent in November compared with year-ago figures, according to research firm
NPD Group.
Non-Apple desktop sales dropped just 15 percent, it said. Overall, sales of desktop systems fell 20 percent for the month.
The bright spot for Apple was its mobile computing line: Notebook sales were up 22 percent, compared to a 15 percent increase in sales of other notebook brands.
The recession is a factor in this decline, of course. Another problem is that the iMac is beginning to show its age. "It is getting old," Stephen Baker, NPD's vice president of industry analysis, told MacNewsWorld. "Meanwhile, we have seen price declines in [other] desktop systems while the iMac remains expensive."
Dropping Stock
In fact, Apple got a double-whammy of bad news on Tuesday, Frederic Ruffy, senior options strategist at WhatsTrading.com, told MacNewsWorld. In addition to the Goldman downgrade, a Kaufman analyst made cautious comments about the December quarter due to lower iPod shuffle sell-through.
Despite the onslaught of negative reports, the stock is proving to be resilient, Ruffy said. After the news was released "it was able to overcome the early selling and move back into positive territory -- back to US$95 a share."
The turnaround in the stock is probably due to the fact that the 50-plus percent year-to-date loss in value already takes into account the low expectations for the next few quarters. "Less consumer spending due to the slowing economy is no longer fresh information," noted Ruffy. "Instead, investors are likely to begin shifting some attention to the MacWorld Expo on Jan. 5 and the possibility of a new product launch, including a possible new Mac mini."
MacWorld Dreams
Indeed, all eyes will be on MacWorld. The glitzy annual meeting is typically a closely watched affair, with both analysts and diehard fans waiting to see what new gadgets Apple will unveil. This January, it will be especially significant -- the rollout of a new product could significantly bolster sales.
All bets are off about Apple's immediate future until MacWorld is over, says Scott Testa, a professor of marketing at St. Joseph's University.
"I am very hesitant to speculate on what is going to happen until that is over," he told MacNewsWorld. "My gut tells me they are going to make a significant announcement, probably around a new Mac mini."
It's entirely possible that Apple will not release a new product this year, though. Goldman Sachs, for one, discounted the possibility in its report.
There is also the chance that Apple could release the wrong product. Citing rumors that it has a netbook under development, NPD's Baker said such a product would be a mistake.
"Their problems won't be solved by putting out a cheap notebook," he said. "They don't have to get into a SKU expansion the way PC vendors do."
At best -- or rather, worst from Apple's perspective -- the slowing economy might warrant a $799 laptop, said Baker, "but let's see how their numbers do in December before we make that call."
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