The World Map of E-Commerce

By year's end, more than 600 million people worldwide will have Internet access and collectively will spend more than US$1 trillion online, according to research firm IDC.

But according to experts, regional e-commerce penetration seems to correlate closely with affluence and education.

"[E-commerce adoption] roughly [maps to] countries or regions with high purchasing power," Mauro Guillen, an associate professor at The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, told the E-Commerce Times.

"The Internet has not become the 'great equalizer,' but rather another medium that people with education and money use more than people without them," Guillen said.

The United States now accounts for 40 percent of money spent online, but that proportion will slip to about 38 percent by 2006 as residents of Asia and Western Europe increase their online spending, IDC reported.

First Shall Be Last?

The U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) recently reported that domestic e-commerce grew to $32 billion in 2001, an increase of more than 19 percent over 2000.

However, first-world status by no means guarantees e-commerce adoption, some experts cautioned.

"Interestingly enough, [sometimes] the most difficult regions [to penetrate] are the most developed, due to installed administrative processes and bureaucracies," California Institute of Technology professor Charles Plott told the E-Commerce Times.

Asian Adoption

In the case of some Asian nations -- such as Singapore, Korea and Hong Kong -- governments are lobbying to bring their citizens online, contributing to rapid Internet penetration, research firm GartnerG2 noted.

Also, GartnerG2 said, broadband is improving the online experience, and more consumers now access the Web via television and mobile devices, increasing their opportunities to spend money online.

All told, IDC said it expects online buying in Asia will grow about 89 percent in 2002.

Euro-Commerce

E-commerce in Western Europe is expected to rise 68 percent this year, partly because of common currency that brings better competition, price transparency and improved deals for online buyers, according to IDC.

"Europe has a different kind of an advantage because the cellular network is all on GSM [global system for mobile communications], and smart chips are universal," Guillen noted.

What is more, rapid growth of brick-and-click retailers in this region has lifted consumer confidence, GartnerG2 analyst Michael Cruz wrote in a recent report.

European e-commerce will account for about $86 billion in 2002, a 48 percent increase over last year, GartnerG2 estimated.

Business Advantage

Even with online retail on the rise in the United States, Western Europe and Asia, sales still account for just a fraction of total retail revenue.

Indeed, online sales in the United States constituted just over 1 percent of overall retail sales in 2001, according to the Department of Commerce. Similarly, European consumer e-commerce will account for just 2.3 percent of all sales in 2002, GartnerG2 predicted.

Therefore, it is not surprising that some analysts say business-to-business (B2B) transactions will overshadow business-to-consumer e-commerce on the world stage. In fact, B2B will account for 83 percent of worldwide online sales in 2002 and 88 percent in 2006, according to IDC.

Miles To Go

Despite the bullish e-commerce outlook in many regions around the world, a number of obstacles still inhibit the pace of growth.

In much of Europe, for example, narrowband access discourages consumers from browsing retail sites for extended periods, GartnerG2's Cruz noted.

And in Asia, e-tailers continue to struggle to serve many languages, cultures and religions with a single retail business model.

Other e-commerce obstacles unique to some Asian nations include concern about secure messaging technologies and Web servers, as well as widespread preference for face-to-face buying and live bargaining, Cruz added.

Slow on the Uptake

Coupled with developing nations' infrastructure deficiencies, some obstacles are likely to persist, inhibiting the development of a global online buying majority, analysts agreed.

"We are still very far away from [an online buying majority]," Guillen said. "The Internet won't develop as fast as some people thought it would."

Currently, e-commerce is growing most slowly in Japan, Latin America and Eastern Europe, IDC reported.

And online transactions will remain an oddity in most of South Asia, Africa, Central America and other underdeveloped areas, according to Guillen.

That said, some opportunities for growth and innovation do exist in these areas.

"E-commerce that was previously thought to be impossible -- needing special contracts or administrative procedures or brokers -- has become possible," CalTech's Plott said.