Despite a slow start to this year's online holiday season, a pair of new reports suggests that online sales could top last year's level by 100 percent.
E-tailers "have reason to be hopeful," according to consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers, which predicts fourth-quarter e-commerce will reach US$10.2 billion, up from $5.2 billion in the same period last year.
Eighty-five percent of Internet users surveyed plan to shop online for gifts this year, up from 67 percent last year.
"What is most encouraging for e-retailers is that a large percentage of these holiday shoppers expect to make a purchase online," said Mary Brett Whitfield, director of the firm's E-Retail Intelligence System.
Goldman Also Sees Gains
Separately, a survey conducted by Goldman Sachs and PC Data Online found that more consumers plan to buy online this year, and veteran buyers intend to spend more this year than last.
"Early indications point to aggregate online spending this holiday quarter [of] 1.5 to 2 times the levels last year," wrote Goldman Sachs analyst Anthony Noto in a report Wednesday.
Given the shrinking number of e-tailers this year, "the leading e-commerce companies should garner a larger percentage of the online shopping pie," Noto continued.
More than half of Internet users surveyed in early November said they had already begun shopping for holiday gifts, and nearly 8 of 10 had made purchases, according to the PricewaterhouseCoopers survey. Forty-five percent of all holiday shoppers, and 20 percent of all Internet users, had purchased gifts online.
Converting Shoppers into Buyers
"Even though most of Internet users' holiday shopping and purchasing activity so far has taken place at stores, online retailers have been able to convert early holiday online shoppers into buyers," PricewaterhouseCoopers said. "On average, online holiday shoppers have done 27 percent of their shopping online and 25 percent of their purchasing online -- almost a one-to-one ratio."
However, Whitfield warned that companies need to stay on top to maintain momentum.
"Online shoppers will be looking for lower prices than they can find in stores, easy transaction processes and on-time deliveries," Whitfield said. "The next few weeks will reveal whether or not online retailers have done their holiday homework and are up to the task."
Keeping 'Em Happy
Goldman's Noto had a similar message. "Customer satisfaction not only affects an e-commerce site's ability to convert someone to a buyer, but also impacts future sales," he wrote.
More than half the people in the Goldman survey said they visited a particular shopping site because they knew about it based on prior experience.
"Clearly, if those experiences are deficient, shoppers will go elsewhere," Noto wrote.
Spending More
Eighty-eight percent of participants in the Goldman survey said they plan to spend the same or more on holiday gifts as last year, and 78 percent said they are likely to buy online again. Twenty percent said their experience with Internet shopping this year was better than last year, and 35 percent said it was the same. The rest had not begun their shopping.
The PricewaterhouseCoopers report was based on surveys of about 500 Internet users between September 21st and 28th and October 26th and November 3rd.
The Goldman survey was sent to 5,000 online households during the week of November 5th, and is based on responses from 2,340 participants.
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