OPINION
Don't Hold Your Breath for iTunes to Kill Blu-ray

That's all pure baloney.

The Bandwidth Obstacle

First, it's going to be many years before Internet downloads can compete with Blu-ray discs in terms of bit rate and video quality. What's worse, we're facing a unique problem these days in that some Internet providers may be working behind the scenes to make life difficult for their competitors. Unless net neutrality laws get some teeth soon, the days of free and open access to any video any time may be numbered.

So, until the day comes when I have a 100 Mbps (megabits per second) cable modem or FiOS connection and the federal government has guaranteed me that I can download an HD movie from Big Time Competitor A on Big Time Competitor B's network in a few minutes with no behind the scenes dirty tricks, I think I'll pass on the Blu-ray is dead scenario.

Going Up

Next, I suspect most people have older DVD players that don't do much in terms of upconverting. They're going to need a new player anyway. For those older players, the output is 480i, and the HDTV it's connected to does it's best to convert that to native resolution. As time goes by, there's going to be less and less emphasis on that circuitry to save costs, and so a good upconverting DVD player will be required. What's a good up-converting DVD player? A Blu-ray.

I've personally seen the difference between and old but serviceable Sony (NYSE: SNE) DVD player delivering 480i and a Blu-ray player with modern electronics delivering 480p via HDMI (high-definition multimedia interface) from a DVD. There is a small but noticeable improvement for the same DVD.

Box Fatigue

Finally, while some people always have their preferences and try to get in on the latest trends, the fact is it's very hard to get all the people to do just what you want them to do all the time. A lot of people have a nice DVD collection, and they're going to keep right on enjoying those movies. If, every once in a while, a Blu-ray movie arrives via Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) or they see an old favorite that just has to be upgraded to HD, they'll do it.

Don't forget, we're still not very good at getting that content off our computers and into our HDTVs. HDTVs with an Ethernet jack are coming, but it's going to take a long time for manufacturers and content providers to make that interface as good as Apple can make it. In the meantime, video box wars and customer "box fatigue" is at an all time high. Adults and their kids know how to operate DVD and Blu-ray players; they're not considered hard to use.

Just Press Play

There's an old adage: "Under the most strictly controlled conditions of pressure, temperature and humidity, the organism will do as it damn well pleases."

So will millions of consumers who don't want to mess around with the Internet, wait for a movie to fill a buffer, mess with complicated video boxes, have a credit card number on file in the sky, worry about net-neutrality dirty tricks, and backing up purchased movies at 2 GB per shot. They just want to plop a disc in the machine, grab some popcorn and enjoy. You can bet Hollywood will keep them happy with lots of selections at Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) for a long time.