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It seems almost every technology analyst, reporter and blogger these days either believes that Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) is on the cusp of releasing an iPod touch-like tablet computer, or is willing to repeat the rumors to that effect. Some believe Apple will reveal a tablet in September, along with the likely announcement of an iPod and iTunes upgrade (think cameras on the iPod touch, more storage and nifty new album content). Plus, Apple's lean and mean next-generation of Mac OS X, a.k.a. "Snow Leopard," is coming out, so September is a real possibility.
Others look to give Apple more time -- say, November -- to get something out before the holiday buying season, or early 2010 to coincide with the Consumer Electronics Show and long wintery days that encourage sitting around and dinking with gadgets. (OK, so this last one comes from me -- I'm much more inclined to care about watching a movie on a gadget when it's freakin' cold and dark outside.)
Either way, there have also been plenty of naysayers leaping out of the woodwork. They say that an attempt at a tablet would be a disaster. Nobody wants to type on a touchscreen, they're unsuitable for getting actual work done, they're too big to be a phone and too small to be a real computer, etc. But Apple managed to re-energize the smartphone category with the iPhone. They took a product category rife with dissatisfaction and made something better. Could they do the same with tablets?
So What's a Tablet Need to Succeed?
If Apple does make a tablet, what features would it need to have? What problems would Apple need to address? What new technologies could Apple bring to the table to turn the tablet from a niche category for Apple lovin' geeks to the next gotta-have device?
- Fun. In whatever form factor, no matter what size, Apple will need to portray using it as a joyful experience -- easy to master. There's no stylus needed, no clumsy interfaces, just pure, easy-to-use fun.
- Big, sharp, multiouch screen. Whatever size screen Apple chooses, it has to be clear and beautiful, and it'll need multitouch capabilities. The pinching and zooming gestures work so well on the iPhone, anything less than that will be a disappointment.
- E-book reader and buying system. This is a pretty much a given, but as Amazon's (Nasdaq: AMZN) Kindle has proven, customers are willing to shell out big bucks for the convenience of the Kindle. I believe there's no hazard in saying you can't have a successful tablet without nailing the e-book option.
- Astounding battery life. Apple has made great gains with its sealed battery systems on its MacBook Pros, and it has so far survived with its sealed battery on the iPhone and iPod touch. A tablet will have to have a stellar battery system to make it.
- Durability. Apple loves to make things thin and light, but a tablet has to be durable. One of the first things reviewers did to the iPhone was drop it onto concrete or try to scratch it up with car keys to figure out how strong it was. If there's fear of breakage -- or fear that kids can break it -- sales
will be an uphill battle. (Of course, how about those super-rigid aluminum unibody MacBook Pros? There's a reason why Apple is using the unibody technology, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a unibody Apple tablet.) - Fantastic Web browsing. Got it already. Apple wouldn't have to do much more than use the iPhone version of Safari to make people happy, but it sure would be nice to have a device that'll work with Adobe (Nasdaq: ADBE) Flash. By having a rich browser experience, Apple basically opens up the device to a rich array of Web applications, giving the device a big range of uses.
- iPhone app compatibility. There are too many great apps available in Apple's App Store to not make them compatible with an Apple tablet. Sure, these apps are designed for iPhones and iPod touches that have smaller screens, but Apple should be able to come up with a way to either virtualize how they run, if not enable them to zoom larger. This is a bit tricky, of course, and no one wants to use a pixelated mess ... but many useful apps could easily take advantage of a larger number of pixels. Either way, iPhone developers with truly killer apps would likely be willing to build them for a tablet device, too.
- More powerful than expected. The tablet represents a good opportunity for Apple to unveil a hot new mobile processor built by the geniuses Apple snagged when it bought PA Semi. Will the processor deliver great graphics capabilities, suck less energy, and run cool? A fast user interface and hiccup-free experience is essential. Consumers might forgive a lousy screen and crappy graphics on a US$299 netbook, but on a more expensive Apple tablet? No way.
- Beautiful movies. Done deal . No problem here. Apple's iTunes/iPhone/iMovie/Apple TV universe already does a fantastic job of scaling and deploying movies to multiple screens that look great. (Granted, not always the sharpest or true HD, but pretty damn good nonetheless.)
- Killer apps. Apple has been cooking up some interesting ways to extend the Apple application experience to touch-screens. Consider Cover Flow, the flickable graphic way to browse album art ... and files and media in Mac OS X. Album art is boring to flick through, but locating files and media would be handy using a finger flick. While we're at it, what if Apple extended iPhoto and iMovie to a tablet? Creating home movies or sharing photos by uploading them to the Web, all from the comfort of a couch ... not a bad pitch.
- Touch-friendly apps. Longtime Apple users may have noticed how Apple has been shifting its user interfaces for many of its products. The controls for iPhoto are bigger, for example, and the on-screen controls for watching movies on an iPhone are now replicated in the iTunes movie watching experience -- big, easy-to-touch controls that overlay the content and don't require the old-school, top-of-the-screen menu system.
- Video chat. Apple's been building cameras into its computers for years, and it's about time it stuck one on the front of a portable device. An easy video chat capability would go a long way to pique the interest of business traveling moms and dads.
- Games. 'Nuff said.
- Accelerometer and compass. This is almost a given. You need the accelerometer for orientation and games, and you need the compass to help out a GPS and mapping solution.
- GPS. Imagine a table that could be used for turn-by-turn directions in a car? The downside is choosing between letting the kids watch videos or getting to your destination. Seriously, though -- most people don't need a GPS unit every day, just when traveling to unfamiliar areas. Instead of a GPS unit that's largely dormant, imagine one that could kick butt and take names when needed --and still be useful in other ways.
- An innovative dock. Apple enjoys a huge third-party accessory ecosystem for its iPhone and iPod lines, so third-party manufacturers would likely create some good docking solutions. But Apple would need to hit a home run here by showing consumers how a tablet would work when it's not on a lap on a couch. Is it super-easy to charge? Easy to sync? Or would syncing be totally wireless?
- Easy HDTV connectivity. If a tablet can easily connect to an HDTV to share videos, music and photos, it's heading in the right direction. You can use a cable and charger for the iPod touch and iPhone now, but there are a lot of cords and no HDMI option. If Apple can turn a tablet into a mobile Apple TV -- along with everything so much more, of course -- well, wow.
- A keyboard. Hold on, I'm not saying a tablet needs a physical keyboard, but what if you could connect a physical keyboard to it? Combined with a cool dock, the ability to connect a keyboard, even Apple's svelte BlueTooth wireless keyboard, would go a long way to imply a broader range of usefulness to hesitant consumers ... and tap into the business market, too.
Opportunities Abound
Aside from the must-have features, Apple has some opportunities, too.
- A tantalizing price. If anyone can sell a high-priced gadget, it's Apple. But what if it broke some new ground? $800 is still a big chunk of change. What if Apple shipped a tablet under $500? What if it was competitive with the Kindle ... but could do so much more?
- A new media reader. Traditional print newspapers are faltering, and lots of print magazines are struggling, too. If Apple could nail down a new publishing system for newspapers and magazines, it could attract readers -- and publishers. Imagine flicking through pages while eating breakfast ... (And yes, this is where a good stand comes in, because you don't want to prop it up against a bowl of oatmeal.)
Two Things It Does Not Need
Of course, there are at least two major items an Apple tablet absolutely does not need to be a hit.
- Enterprise apps. Businesses won't buy an Apple tablet without some compelling application options and prices that come with reasonable ROI. Enterprise apps will come, but they won't be a requirement for initial success . Apple will get into the enterprise like it always has -- through the back door.
- A stylus for artists. Sure, it's a tablet, but it doesn't have to be a traditional tablet for artists to sketch out cool graphics. Apple needs a consumer tablet, not a professional tablet.
Overall, a tablet -- even with all of these features built-in -- faces a tough challenge. With consumers gravitating toward notebooks in increasing numbers, they already have semi-portable devices. Price is also an issue. My MacBook, for example, is more powerful than a MacBook Air, and yet it's still basically as portable. Sure, the MacBook Air is lust-worthy and perfect for some, but it's not an answer for the masses. Netbooks offer the basic needs at a nice price -- but they also face crippling mandates from Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) and low build quality.
If Apple can convince me that a tablet will handle all of my everyday media needs -- movies, photos, music, books, blogs, Web sites, email and maps -- I'm close to buying one. That is, of course, only if Apple somehow creates a marketing message that convinces me that a tablet promises to bring joy, too.
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