By Nora Macaluso E-Commerce Times
01/05/01 5:09 PM PT
Despite the recent surge, tech stocks, and e-commerce stocks in particular,
are not likely to regain their former luster, analysts say.
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Technology stocks ended mostly lower Thursday
as investors pulled out of the battered sector following
Wednesday's rally induced by the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest
rate cut. Some issues, however, managed to hold on to
Wednesday's gains.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite stock index fell
49.85 to 2566.84, after climbing more than 14 percent
Wednesday.
The E-Commerce Times stock
index, which consists of 10 prominent dot-coms, slipped 3.54 percent
Thursday, following an 18.8 percent rise Wednesday.
Winners and Losers
Among e-commerce stocks, e-tailer Beyond.com
(Nasdaq: BYND) registered an 80 percent gain, rising
0.12 to 0.28. Online auctioneer eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY) fell 3.98 to 35.38,
while Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) lost 2.06 to 15.50.
Thursday's big technology and telecommunication winners were
America Online, Inc. (NYSE: AOL), which rose 4.59 to 42.09,
and Sprint PCS (NYSE: PCS), which picked up
3.31 to 24 after announcing a wireless agreement with Palm (Nasdaq: PALM).
On the downside, Qlogic (Nasdaq: QLGC) dropped 8.06 to 7.88, and
Inktomi (Nasdaq: INKT) fell 4.62 to 13.88, after saying sales and
earnings for the quarter just ended would be below previous expectations.
Taking a Breather
Stocks soared Wednesday after Federal Reserve policymakers delivered a
surprise interest-rate cut, lowering their target for the key federal funds
rate to 6 percent from 6.5 percent. The central bank said the move reflected
slowing sales and production, declining consumer confidence, "tight
conditions" in financial markets and high energy prices.
Brian Belski, market strategist at US Bancorp Piper Jaffray, said Thursday's
market action was "a fairly big positive" for tech stocks. Big
gains two days in a row would be "too much, too fast" and could spur more
selling, he told the E-Commerce Times.
The fact that stocks did not give
back all Wednesday's ground, according to Belski, "showed that the market
believes in the gains."
Spurring Investment
Analysts said the rate cut should help cash-strapped companies resume
investments in information technology. Several technology companies --
ranging from computer makers to chip manufacturers to Internet consultants --
have said fourth-quarter results will be hurt by a slowdown in technology
investment.
"Interest rates have been rising," said Bob Anastasi, director of research
at Raymond James. "The fact that interest rates are moving down should help
spending on technology products next year."
"Most tech stocks have earnings that are far in the future," said Chris
Bonavico, money manager at Transamerica Investment Management.
As lower interest rates take hold, companies with "cash-flow issues" could see the
door to liquidity begin to open, Bonavico told the E-Commerce Times.
Analysts Cautious
Still, analysts also urged caution. "Before the dancing and partying get too
loud, there remain issues to be dealt with," US Bancorp's Belski wrote in a
research note. "An important variable going forward will be how much of a
time discount the market will give the high-growth stocks for their
impending and probable stabilization."
E-commerce stocks, in particular, are not likely to regain their former
luster, according to Transamerica's Bonavico. "They've been shown to be not
real businesses -- more concept than execution," he said. "Some investors
were fooled, most investors were speculating" in bidding up the stocks, he
said.
The rule going forward, Bonavico said, will be "Once bitten, twice shy."
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