ANALYSIS
Earnings: Will Tech Pull Through?

Intel: The opening ceremonies, and possibly the fireworks, begin April 15 with Intel's (Nasdaq: INTC) results from the first three months of 2008. The semiconductor company rattled nerves March 3 with a warning about weakness in its memory chip business. Revising its profit forecasts downward, Intel blamed weak demand at its NAND flash venture with Micron Technologies. As a result, the company said it would be forced to write down the value of its NAND inventory.

Intel also cautioned that its gross margins, a widely watched measure of profitability, would come in at about 54 percent, down two percentage points from prior forecasts. On average, analysts are expecting Intel to report first-quarter revenue of about US$9.6 billion to $9.7 billion with earnings of 25 percent per share. "The question is how much the writedown will affect earnings and whether or not it was enough to allow gross margins to rise for the balance of the year," says analyst Doug Freedman of American Technology Research.

Analysts are somewhat split over what to expect from Intel's computer chip business. Freedman, for example, is expecting strong guidance from Intel on the PC front, whereas Edwin Mok of Needham & Co. says that warnings from Intel rival Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) (AMD) indicate a weaker than usual environment for computer sales that can't help but hit Intel's guidance going into the second quarter. Chris Danely of JPMorgan, in a research note issued April 10, said that gains by Intel with PC maker Dell (Nasdaq: DELL) were largely offset by losses to AMD at Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) .

Phones and Handhelds

Apple: Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) , which only uses Intel chips in its Mac computers, is expected to report that it sold as many as 2.1 million desktop and laptop machines in the first three months of 2008 when the company posts its results April 23. With consumer confidence sagging, Apple is seen as especially vulnerable. All eyes will be on unit sales of its iPod music players, which have been slowing, and the iPhone, which have been accelerating. For now, analysts are predicting sales of just less than $7 billion and earnings of $1.06 per share.

Research In Motion: It's possible iPhone sales have held up well against the downturn, given the recent strong showing by Research In Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM) , the Canadian company behind the BlackBerry smartphone. On April 2, Research In Motion reported a healthy surge in sales for its fiscal fourth quarter that ended in early March.

Motorola: There is no more obvious a victim of the success of the iPhone and BlackBerry than Motorola (NYSE: MOT) , which reports its first-quarter results April 24. Analysts polled by First Call expect Motorola to lose 7 percent a share, or nearly $150 million, on $7.8 billion in sales, amid more market-share losses for its cell phone business. On April 7, the company said it would make peace with activist investor Carl Icahn and accept two of his nominees to the board. That followed news on March 26 that it plans to spin off the once high-flying mobile-device business as an independent company.

Nokia: Motorola's weakness will be Nokia's (NYSE: NOK) gain. Analysts expect the Finnish company's report on April 17 to show a healthy first-quarter profit of $2.28 billion on sales of $19.9 billion. That would mark a billion-dollar jump from the $1.3 billion Nokia earned in the year-ago quarter, when sales reached $13.5 billion. Lower component prices and strong demand in China, India, and Eastern Europe are driving the results.

IT and E-Commerce

IBM: Elsewhere in the tech sector, IBM (NYSE: IBM) is expected to challenge the idea that the entire industry has been hit hard by the slowdown. With its stock trading at $119, just slightly below a five-year high, IBM surprised on the upside with its fourth-quarter report and analysts expect more of the same when Big Blue announces its first-quarter results April 16. The consensus estimate calls for $1.44 per share of profit on $23.6 billion in revenue. In an April 10 note, Smith Barney said: "We expect solid revenues across all divisions."

eBay: The Internet sector's results will be examined closely for any new signs of a feared slowdown in consumer spending and online advertising . Online auction giant eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY) , considered a strong bellwether for consumer sentiment, leads off for the group with an April 16 report. Beyond any economic impact, investors will be looking to see the initial impact of controversial changes to eBay's auction fee structure announced in January. Analysts expect to see eBay post earnings of 39 percent per share on a 17 percent gain in revenue to $2.07 billion.

Google: If consumer spending is down, it follows that online advertising can't help but be affected, too. That's the fear in advance of Google's (Nasdaq: GOOG) quarterly report on April 17. While the quarter saw Google's stock lose a third of its value amid jitters about a downturn in its mammoth search-ad delivery business, analysts are expecting the company to shake it off. Wall Street forecasts have Google reporting profits of $4.52 a share on revenue of $3.6 billion, up from $3.68 a share on $2.5 billion in revenue a year earlier. One reason for the optimism: CEO Eric Schmidt has sought to reassure investors that a notable decline in advertising clicks is the result of an intentional effort to reduce accidental hits on Web ads.

Yahoo: The same worries about Web advertising are also hanging over Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) , whose report on April 22 also carries the added drama of its attempt to fight off Microsoft's (Nasdaq: MSFT) takeover bid. CEO Jerry Yang has justified his rejection of Microsoft's $31-per-share bid with promises of a solid start to 2008 and aggressive growth projections. A weak report would unmask those assertions as an empty bluff, possibly prompting Microsoft to lower its bid. The Street is anticipating Yahoo will report $1.33 billion in revenue and profits of 11 percent per share. Investors are unlikely to stomach anything less.

The same might be said of the entire tech sector. Investors as a whole seem more acutely aware than usual this earnings season to any hint of weakening quarters ahead. Yet braced as they are for the worst, they may emerge from this earnings season more hopeful than before.