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Whenever Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) announces a new product, the thoughts of potential first-day buyers turn to crowded showroom floors and long checkout lines. Will that be the case when the iPhone 4 goes on sale June 24?
"Apple has raised the bar far enough that it's going to generate similar excitement to what we've seen in the past," Michael Gartenberg, a partner with the Altimeter Group, told MacNewsWorld.
Those bar-raising additions to the new iPhone include video conferencing between iPhone 4's on a WiFi connection, a high-resolution 960-by-640 Retina display, and HD video recording.
"More than a few existing users are going to want to upgrade, and I think we're going to see some new sales driven as well," Gartenberg added.
Changes Add to Opening Day Queues
Adding to the opening day crush for the new iPhone will be the modifications to its upgrade policy made by AT&T (NYSE: T), the sole carrier for the mobile in the U.S. Under those changes, existing iPhone customers whose contracts expire before the end of this year can purchase the new iPhone at discount prices -- provided they sign another two-year agreement -- of US$199 for 16GB model and $299 for a 32GB one.
"People will be able to work with AT&T to shorten the cycle that it takes for them to get a new phone at a discounted price," Gartenberg explained. "That's simply going to accelerate the number of people who will be standing in line on June 24."
Although unable to predict what the atmosphere will be like at its store on opening day for the iPhone 4, AT&T will be prepared for all contingencies, according to company spokesperson Jenny Bridges.
"We learned a lot from previous iPhone launches and will be prepared if there are lines at our stores," she told MacNewsWorld. "We're excited to offer this great new device, and we're excited to be able to offer it to more customers at our best price."
Not Apple's First Rodeo
Not everyone, though, believes iPhone 4 will produce the fireworks of previous releases when it first reaches the shelves at the end of this month. "That's not a bad thing," Michael Morgan, a mobile devices analyst with ABI Research, told MacNewsWorld. "The stampede that the 3G caused was enormous."
Moreover, he added, Apple is experienced with managing opening-day crowds. "This isn't Apple's first rodeo," he observed. "They've been through this a couple of times. They know how badly they're going to get hit, so they're going to be prepared for it."
However, Apple may not be "hit" as hard as it has been during past iPhone launches, he maintained. "There are some nice new things in this phone," he said, "but a lot of these additions are there for people who already have an iPhone and wanted more.
"This phone is for early adopters, not for a bunch of people moving to a new smartphone environment," he added.
Pop In Sales
He predicted, however, that initial sales of the new iPhone will rival or exceed those of prior models.
For example, the quarter before the iPhone 3G was announced, 700,000 units were sold. That jumped to 7 million in the quarter following the 3G introduction. When the 3GS was unveiled, quarter-to-quarter sales jumped to 7.5 million from 5 million.
Morgan forecasted that the iPhone 4 will create a similar "pop" in Apple sales after its release. How big a pop? Quarter to quarter, he predicted a 50-percent increase in iPhone sales.
"If the release schedule had been the same as in the past, the increase would be less," he explained, "but the iPhone 4 will be released internationally at a much more rapid rate."
